Well at that moment, based on my minimal knowledge on economics, I did support Laxmi stating real estate will always have its cycles but over a long run, it is one of the safest investments'. Added to this was the fact that friends and neighbours who had bought homes were reaping the benefits of house appreciation and eugolizing their investments. To this Dhruv's reaction was 'thu tho bache hai' in Hindi meaning, you are kids. Having got introduced couple of hours back, I decided to not argue any further. But for Dhruv, a Harvard Graduate, he knew how little knowledge we had on the macro-economics.
I continued with the my belief in safe returns on real estate investment, added to which was the fact that living in an apt is a dead investment, especially given the high rental rates in california. The same money if I would invest on a home, I would rather reap long term benefits. With this mindset I have always looked out for purchasing a home. Probably the first visit I paid to a home and got the brochure was in Oct 2003, a KB Home in Rancho Cocomonga, Southern California, where I had moved on job. Although it was a new community with a 3-bed home costing less than 300 K, I decided to opt out from the 'American Dream' for personal reasons - impending marriage.
After marriage, I started to see a steady and slow increase in the rate at which people around me - friends and cousins were buying homes. Although enticed into the dream, I decided to wait until the finalization of my wife's graduate school. In 2006 she finalized and got admission in Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo. We moved to San Luis Obispo and were attracted to the serene beauty of the place and community. I was very eager to have my dream realized here. But, what stopped me was the real estate market itself - its high exorbiant housing prices. Also, by this time, I started to feel a eere or un-easiness around the housing market and that it is probably getting stretched.
We moved back to Los Angeles after my wife's graduation and now we started to see in quick succession few of my colleagues buying homes in Chino, CA. The desire to realize the dream made me look up again and shop. Now, with people having seen the contineous rise of the housing market, for so long, had enough justifications that this was not a bubble and even if it was it would never crash land. But the eere inner feeling helped slow down the thoughts and procastinate the dive into the dream. The last visit I paid to a housing location was probably in May 2007. Probably some time around July 2007, I believe reality started to unfold and the housing market started to slow down and credit slowly tightened up.
Today, reflecting back, what comes to my mind is probably what was going on in Dhruv's mind in 2000 - Macro-Economics. The steeper and longer the slope the harder is the crash. Some may argue he was conservative especially in a place like Berkely the house prices are still above the prices in 2000. Probably true, although I do not have hard facts and can not weigh on that decision. But on personal end, probably the price of the first home I saw in Rancho Cocomonga, may be back or around the price I was offered in 2003. In which case, probably if I would have invested in the home in 2003, I would not have lost much money and infact save on my rent. As a counter argument, when I consider the indirect costs of buying the home - the flexibility to move to San Luis Obispo - without any hassles of renting out, cost of gas ($4+ per gallon) and the time, in hindsight, it was not a really bad decision to not have bought the home.
All through these years I always thought of 'my American Dream having gone too long'. But with the sequence of events that have been unfolding since this July, I now feel, 'It is THE American dream that has gone too long - stretched un-interrupted and un-regulated'. The blame game will go on from bankers to brokers to regulators to economists to politicians and to many more. But let us not exclude some of us on the main street whose extravegence & greed, spreading ourselves very thin and purchasing more than one home are equally responsible for where we are today.